Clausewitzian Trinity
Foundational Military StrategyClausewitzian Trinity is a term used in discussions of military strategy, and even geo-political strategy, whose basis is the unfinished, but seminal treatise On War by the Prussian military philosopher General Carl von Clausewitz (1780-1831). Clausewitz is referred to by some as the millennium's preeminent strategist and his work On War is widely considered to be the Western peer, but not necessarily the equal, of the ancient Chinese war philosopher Sun Tzu, The Art of War. Read by Eisenhower, Kissinger, Patton, Mao and most great modern military and business strategists, Clausewitz’s and Sun Tsu’s works are foundational studies in war colleges around the world.
Clausewitz’s introduction of systematic philosophical thought into Western military instruction and operational planning is embodied in what has come to be called the “Clausewitzian Trinity”. In On War (page 89) Clausewitz describes this trinity:
"As a total phenomenon its dominant tendencies always make war a remarkable trinity--composed (1) of primordial violence, hatred, and enmity, which are to be regarded as a blind natural force; (2) of the play of chance and probability within which the creative spirit is free to roam; and (3) of its element of subordination, as an instrument of policy, which makes it subject to reason alone."
Some have shortened the Clausewitzian Trinity to the three single words: emotion, chance, and policy.
Clausewitz correlates each of these forces to one of three sets of human actors (his “social trinity”) – the people, the army, and the government – each of which is associated “mainly” with war’s three components, in the order listed. However, Clausewitzian does not equate the social trinity to the larger “categories of forces” we call the Clausewitzian Trinity, which are larger and more powerful forces at work.
West Point and Army War College instructors Edward J. Villacres and Christopher Bassford, writing in Parameters, the Journal of the U.S. Army War College, Autumn, 1995 (http://www.clausewitz.com/CWZHOME/Trinity/TRININTR.htm), describe the Clausewitzian Trinity as one of the Clausewitzian concepts most frequently cited in all of recent military literature.
After the Vietnam and first Gulf War experiences, in two influential studies, On Strategy: A Critical Analysis of the Vietnam War (1982) and On Strategy II: A Critical Analysis of the Gulf War (1995), Col. Harry Summers moves away from the classical Clausewitzian Trinity and emphasizes the Clausewitzian-correlated "people, army, and government” as the essential trinity for military operations.
Other authors including Martin van Creveld, The Transformation of War (New York: The Free Press, 1991); John Keegan, A History of Warfare (New York: Knopf, 1993), dismiss the Clausewitzian Trinity as largely irrelevant to nonpolitical wars against non-state opponents like terrorists.
Nevertheless, as illustration of the continuing validity of the Clausewitzian Trinity in considerations of military strategy, Villacres and Bassford point out, “Clausewitz saw his theory as a basis for study, not as doctrine.”
The term Clausewitzian friction refers to Clausewitz’s theory that reality exerts a kind of friction on ideas and intentions in war. This term is commonly associated with the diverse difficulties and impediments to the effective use of military force, as cited in Barry D. Watts, Clausewitzian Friction and Future War (Diane Publishing, 1996, and National Defense University, 2004).
The general term “Clausewitzian” is also tossed around casually as in Clausewitzian thought, Clausewitzian perspective, and even inappropriately in the phrases Clausewitzian buffer and Clausewitzian humor.
Stagflation, is it baaaaack?!
Amsterdan After 17 consecutive increases at each meeting since June 2004, in a rare split decision the Federal Reserve voted August 8th to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.25 percent. A pause in the bombing.
Inflation continues, prompted by oil prices (orchestrated by a Middle East policy that has failed on multiple fronts, by Exxon-Mobil greed, BP incompetence, rising demand from China and India, well, you know the litany…) and continually rising raw materials prices for steel, cement, copper, PVC and other building materials in high demand in the booming Far East. But Greenspan’s almost-ready-for-prime-time replacement Ben S. Bernanke seems to be figuring on the sudden retreat of the housing market and the consequent evaporation of billions of dollars in homeowner equity to put downward pressure on prices and forestall further inflation.
The Fed is hoping we’ll all say, “My home is worth less so I’ll shop only at Walmart.”
But an observation by writer Edmund Andrews in the New York Times raises concern: “At the same time, economic growth has slowed sharply, unemployment is creeping up and productivity growth — the primary determinant of overall prosperity and the crucial ingredient in having healthy growth without rising prices — has stalled.”
Hmmm. Sure these conflicting trends happen. Ebb and flow. It takes a while to put the brakes on the US economy or to slow the creep of inflation, so sometimes there can be a brief disconnect. But look at the source of the trends.
Oil could hit $100 a barrel if any of a half-dozen known dangers materialize – Iraq civil war, Venezuelan assassination, overthrow of the Saudi kingdom, another Katrina event in the Gulf, terrorist attack in Dubai, Iranian blockade of the other Gulf – ok, I’ll stop, I’m depressed already. So in response, say the US Administration and the Fed make a couple of rash, bonehead moves – what are the odds – and maybe Kim Jong-Il accidentally bombs Tokyo and the neocons react and all of a sudden China decides to flex its economic muscle and draws down some cash from the US banking and investment system. The squeeze is on. Economies begin to react. Jobs are lost. The US economy stagnates.
BUT…inflation continues because of the oil and commodities pressures. Guess what, stagflation. A stagnating economy with high inflation. From 1979 to 1981 the US prime rate soared to a high of 21.5% (prime, not credit card rate), while costs of labor and materials continued to spiral upward and the economic metrics continued to decline. It could happen again and those of us who suffered greatly a quarter-century ago know this could get ugly before it gets better.
Is it time to hunker down?
Bono investment group buys into Forbes
New YorkReuters picked up the story early: “Family-held publisher Forbes on Monday said it sold a minority stake in its collection of business media properties to a private equity firm that includes rock star Bono as a partner. Forbes created a new company, Forbes Media LLC, to encompass Forbes magazine, founded in 1917, its Internet and other properties.
“Elevation Partners, a $1.9 billion media and entertainment buyout firm, bought a stake in the new company, making it the first outside investor in Forbes media assets. Bono, lead singer of rock group U2, is one of its six partners.”
Elevation Partners was formed in June 2004 by Bono (aka Paul Hewson) and what the Forbes/Wolfe Blog then reported as “an all-star team [including] Roger McNamee of Silver Lake Partners, John Riccitiello (ex-president of Electronic Arts) and Fred Anderson (who just retired as Apple’s CFO).”
According to the Mercury News, “the Forbes deal is Elevation's third investment. It invested $100 million in Move.com, formerly Homestore, a home and real estate site, and $300 million in Pandemic Studios and BioWare, two independent video game developers. For Bono and McNamee, a musician himself whose telephone music for callers on hold featured the Doors on Monday, the Forbes deal is more than an investment.”
``I think the Web is becoming more important in people's lives,'' said Roger McNamee, managing director and co-founder of Elevation Partners. ``The next transformation is that people will want content when they want it, how they want it, where they want it. They have a tremendous need for insight because they don't have enough time.''
Mercury News quoted Steve Forbes, chairman and publisher of Forbes, as saying that despite what naysayers may think about the Internet killing off traditional media, ``the media universe is expanding. We see opportunities and we want to seize them before others seize them.''
This investment positions Bono and Company squarely in the business media content world, just as U2’s media campaign for the Apple iPod featured U2’s “Vertigo” as the soundtrack. U2’s Vertigo tour started here in San Diego on March 28, 2005 with the last performance set in Honolulu December 9, 2006.
The Forbes acquisition comes on the heels of Bono’s being named one of three of Time Magazine’s 2005 “Persons of the Year” along with Bill and Melinda Gates. Time described the trio as "Good Samaritans" who made a difference in different ways.
"For being shrewd about doing good, for rewiring politics and re-engineering justice, for making mercy smarter and hope strategic and then daring the rest of us to follow, Bill and Melinda Gates and Bono are Time's Persons of the Year," the magazine said in its December 19, 2005 issue. The Irish rocker was also nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2003 and 2005 for his work in combating poverty in Africa and the U2 album How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb.
``When Bono talks about getting rid of poverty, a big part of what he does is give people the tools to improve their lives economically,'' McNamee was quoted by Mercury News, who said he expects to see a Forbes magazine wherever there's a growing economy. ``That's about entrepreneurship and capital. And it's at the individual level. You have to do it from the bottom up. Forbes isn't the whole answer, but they are part of the answer.''
As RTE Business described it today: “It brings together Bono, one of the world's most prominent celebrity activists fighting poverty, with the 'entrepreneurial capitalism' advocated by the Forbes family.”
And in the words of Anthony Clark in Britain’s The Guardian, “Bono has cemented his reputation as the establishment's favourite rock star.”
